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Primary Submission Category: Causal Inference in Networks

Network Synthetic Interventions: A Framework for Panel Data with Network Interference

Authors: Anish Agarwal, Sarah Cen, Devavrat Shah, Christina Lee Yu,

Presenting Author: Sarah H,. Cen*

We propose a generalization of the synthetic controls and synthetic interventions methodology to incorporate network interference. We consider the estimation of unit-specific treatment effects from panel data where there are spillover effects across units and in the presence of unobserved confounding. Key to our approach is a novel latent factor model that takes into account network interference and generalizes the factor models typically used in panel data settings. We propose an estimator, “network synthetic interventions”, and show that it consistently estimates the mean outcomes for a unit under an arbitrary sequence of treatments for itself and its neighborhood, given certain observation patterns hold in the data. We corroborate our theoretical findings with simulations.