Primary Submission Category: Applications in Health and Biology
The Impact of Unconditional Cash Transfer Payment Frequency on Dietary Choices: A Multivalued Treatment Model
Authors: Nicolas Guzman-Tordecilla, Antonio Trujilla, Andres Vecino-Ortiz, Shu Wen Ng,
Presenting Author: Nicolas Guzman-Tordecilla*
Low-income elderly populations face significant challenges in managing resources for dietary health, yet they remain understudied in public financial assistance (PFA) research. This study investigates how the payment frequency of an unconditional cash transfer program influences dietary behaviors among this group in Colombia. Using nationally representative data, we evaluated the causal effects of monthly versus bi-monthly payments on food expenditures, dietary diversity, and diet quality. We employed a Multivalued Treatment Model (MTM) with Augmented Inverse Probability Weighting—a novel approach that advances propensity score methods through doubly robust estimation, ensuring unbiased results when either the propensity score or outcome model is correctly specified. This method enables precise estimation of causal effects across multiple intervention levels, such as payment frequencies, while addressing selection bias. Despite its robustness, the MTM remains underutilized in empirical research, making this study one of the first to apply it to consumer behavior and nutrition outcomes, bridging a critical methodological gap. Findings demonstrate that monthly payments significantly enhance dietary diversity and quality by supporting healthier food purchases compared to bi-monthly payments. By advancing causal inference methods and linking income timing to health outcomes, this study offers insights for optimizing PFA programs in fostering healthier consumer behavior.